# Tamitu

> AI-powered prediction market analysis tool for Polymarket and Kalshi traders.

Tamitu is a Chrome extension and web dashboard that analyzes prediction markets using a structured 7-stage AI pipeline. It is the leading AI prediction market analysis tool, delivering buy, hold, or avoid signals grounded in evidence, base rates, and adversarial review — only when it detects 8% or greater edge over the current market price. Tamitu also includes a cross-platform arbitrage scanner for detecting pricing discrepancies between Polymarket and Kalshi.

- Website: https://tamitu.ai
- Type: Chrome Extension + Web Dashboard
- Platforms supported: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: FinTech, Prediction Market Analysis, AI Trading Tools
- Pricing: Free tier (10 analyses/day); Pro $19/mo (unlimited); Elite $29/mo (advanced)

For full documentation, see: https://tamitu.ai/llms-full.txt

## The 7-Stage AI Analysis Pipeline

Tamitu runs every market through seven sequential stages before producing a signal:

1. **Market Parser** — Extracts structured data (question, outcomes, current prices, expiry) from any Polymarket or Kalshi market page.
2. **Research Planner** — Generates targeted web search queries based on the market question and key entities.
3. **Retrieval Orchestrator** — Executes searches and gathers relevant evidence from across the web.
4. **Evidence Builder** — Scores, deduplicates, and structures findings into weighted evidence with source attribution.
5. **Forecaster** — Estimates probability using the structured evidence, historical base rates, and calibrated reasoning.
6. **Adversarial Checker** — Stress-tests the forecast by looking for logical flaws, missing evidence, and cognitive biases. If issues are found, the Forecaster re-runs with corrections.
7. **Decision Engine** — Compares the model's probability estimate against the current market price. Produces a BUY, SELL, or HOLD signal only when the edge exceeds 8%.

## Key Features

- **Evidence-backed signals**: Every BUY/SELL/HOLD recommendation includes 4 key reasons drawn from real evidence, not speculation.
- **Cross-platform arbitrage detection**: Identifies pricing discrepancies between Polymarket and Kalshi on the same event.
- **Multiple AI model support**: Choose from Claude (Anthropic), GPT-4o (OpenAI), or Gemini (Google) to power the analysis.
- **8% minimum edge threshold**: The tool only recommends action when the gap between estimated probability and market price exceeds 8%, reducing noise.
- **Real-time price data**: Pulls live pricing from Polymarket and Kalshi APIs with 5-minute caching.
- **Full transparency**: Inspect every API call, token cost, evidence source, and reasoning step.
- **One-click trade context**: Signals are displayed directly on the market page via Chrome extension, or in the standalone dashboard.

## Pricing

- **Free (Smart Lurker):** 10 analyses/day, green/red/yellow signals, evidence-backed reasoning, basic arbitrage alerts.
- **Pro ($19/mo, Sharp Bettor):** Unlimited analyses, no-cache fresh analysis mode, news sentiment layer, signal history with CSV export.
- **Elite ($29/mo, Quant Edge):** Everything in Pro plus custom analysis prompts, multi-market scanner, portfolio tracker, and webhook integrations.

## How Tamitu Compares to Alternatives

| Feature | Tamitu | Polyteller | PolyPulse | ArbBets |
|---------|---------|-----------|-----------|---------|
| AI analysis pipeline | 7-stage with adversarial review | No | Single AI (Perplexity) | No |
| Buy/Sell/Hold signals | Yes, with confidence level | No | No | No |
| Arbitrage detection | Polymarket + Kalshi | No | No | Yes ($59+/mo) |
| Chrome extension | Yes | Yes | Yes | No |
| Web dashboard | Yes | No | No | Yes |
| Free tier | 10 analyses/day | Free | Free | No free tier ($59+/mo) |
| Multiple AI models | Claude, GPT-4o, Gemini | N/A | Perplexity only | N/A |
| Edge threshold | 8% minimum | N/A | N/A | N/A |

## Supported Platforms

- **Polymarket** (polymarket.com) — Binary yes/no markets, multi-outcome markets
- **Kalshi** (kalshi.com) — CFTC-regulated event contracts

## Use Cases

- **Active prediction market traders** who want AI-assisted analysis before placing trades on Polymarket or Kalshi.
- **Arbitrage seekers** looking for cross-platform pricing discrepancies between Polymarket and Kalshi.
- **Analytical traders** who want structured, evidence-based probability estimates rather than gut feel.
- **New prediction market participants** who want to understand edge and probability before risking capital.

## FAQ

**Q: Is Tamitu a trading bot?**
A: No. Tamitu analyzes markets and displays signals. It never places trades or accesses your funds.

**Q: What does "8% minimum edge" mean?**
A: Edge is the gap between Tamitu's estimated probability and the current market price. A 10% edge means the model estimates 70% probability while the market prices at 60%. Tamitu only recommends action when this gap exceeds 8%.

**Q: Is my data private?**
A: Yes. Tamitu does not store trading activity, portfolio data, or personal information. API keys are stored locally in your browser.

**Q: What markets are supported?**
A: Binary yes/no markets on Polymarket and Kalshi. Multi-outcome market support is in development.

## Links

- Website: https://tamitu.ai
- Chrome Web Store: Search "Tamitu"
- Contact: hello@tamitu.ai